We continue to buy but lights on good value companies. Oil price is temporarily stable after ceiling production limit set. We believe oil price is capable to further fix above USD 50 if necessary. Now it will be the time to focus into possible revival of world economy especially US, China, Japan and Europe. We believe US and China are still strong but Europe and Japan are struggling. Emerging markets will resume its grow once the road blocks are clear. However, cautious on end major problems due to global warming and central’s banks debt remained. Our strategy remained to invest in asset oriented business, commodities oriented and environmental businesses. With a condition bias to dividend or income oriented companies.
Lack of liquidity globally
When loan at low to negative rate. However, many equities trading below 5-10 times with a return of equity close to as high as 20%. The only reason to explain is the world actually still growing but diluted. Especially liquidity may gone to other areas where hoping a U turn when they re-enter equities markets. Opportunities are everywhere from China to Singapore. US to Europe and even locally Malaysia.
Oil surged after Saudi, Qatar and Russia agreed to cut production
A much awaited move to stabilize oil price. At least a strong support for oil to test below USD 20. A modest price between USD 40 to 60 is needed for healthy economy grow with reasonable inflation.
Major Chinese banks are undervalued
After the recent sharp correction, many Chinese banks are undervalued. Many price earning ratios below 4 times and trading below NTA. We will start pick up certain banks again. Our preference is ABC, ICBC and CCB.
We bought MBSB below RM 1.40
We like the call off of the potential M&A. We think the best return for share holder is to apply banking license by itself. Be it need more time rather than paying premium just for the reason of lower cost of fund. We bought some below RM 1.40
The bear is in full control
HSI, Europe and Dow Jones further plunged signal prolong bear momentum. We will be careful in buying as the recovery may be further prolonged.
Bingo against the trend with record new movie performance
Bingo new movie mermaid against the trend. In just 72 hours, the movie achieved ticket sales of RMB 800 millions. Already broken 1st day record in China for best mandarin movie. Set to cross another total all time high record in a week or two to come. We bought Bingo again this morning at HKD 0.290.
BOJ – negative interest rate
Sound similar like FED years back? Well possibly the best time to revisit Japan. Emerging market currencies will further strengthen as developed market easing monetary policy further.
We buy AUD as RM strengthened
RM is building a momentum of recovery. We bought some AUD below RM 3 vs AUD 1. RM also doing better against USD at RM 4.15.
Sign of weakening US data and OPEC proposed 5% output cut roar market
We are not sure if this going to be a catalyst. But we think oil should be around USD 40 – 50 as a better value to reflect efforts of exploration.
Weakening data will give pressure for FED to ease it’s momentum for rate hike. We are not sure is this round but a good sign to end the early 2016 starting problem.