Alright, Ebola and Greece concerns again rocking the market!

The selloff in Dow Jones persisted pressured by Ebola and Greece new financial concerns. As of now Dow down another 350 points and it may not look good with on target to set another one of the record black October.

However, we will be still a hold on fundamental top picks. We recommend stay away from the market a while. Take a short rest and walk away. We are still positive about the market and may do mild nibbling time to time.

Concern about little tools that central banks cannot use to boost Eurozone economy is a fact. But the growth of other part of the worlds especially merging market may balance off the effect.

The only worry to us is Ebola. If it is confirmed spreading out quickly in US and other countries. We think a mini crash may be on hand soon.

KLCI will test it support of 1800 post budget week

As we have a neutral stand on budget 2015. The weakness of Dow Jones and potential clearance of protest students in Hong Kong will pressure the global markets. Ebola outbreak is becoming a crucial factor in the coming week. If the spreading is extensive, we can see a further downward trend for world markets.

We will continue nibbling our top picks while market is at the correction phase. We still maintain our position with good stock selection with asset oriented companies will be our choice.

Budget 2015 – Micro oriented and depending on execution

Skip all the details about the budget. We feel that the budget 2015 focused into many micros development. Spending and expenditure are almost balance. It is expected as a tight budget as usual. We think the budget has some qualities in it. However, it will be depending on the execution of all the details. Overall, we would like to say is a neutral budget that still can support growth.

Merger valuaiton on MBSB and RHBCap at RM 2.82 and RM 10.03

If based on the valuation proposed for both MBSB at RM 2.82 and RHBCap at RM 10.03 is not excited us. When we first started invest in both MBSB and RHBCap. We believe its long term value also its price earning valuation ratios are attractive. We valued MBSB at least RM 3.000 above and RHBCap at RM 10.00 above.

However, the post merger may given a higher valuation and move RHBCap and MBSB trading PE to 15 times. We are particular interested in MBSB merger to form the mega Islamic Banking. As we believe the growth of Islamic banking is still immense in Malaysia.

As such, we recommend a hold and if possible until post merger. MBSB may be given a higher valuation after post merger due to its upgrade become a mega Islamic bank. Also possibly tapping into larger opportunity due to its increase in size.

We are buying as market over sold

As KLCI in a short term correction mode.  There are stocks that beaten down a lot possibly due to fear of retail investor.  Many 2nd liners or grow stocks has started to show value.  

We bought MNRB at RM 4.250, Lonbisc at RM 0.715, Success at RM 1.700, TA at RM 0.870.  We will gradually nibbling for our top picks as long as value emerge no matter what is the sentiment of KLCI.

We have shorted KLCI at 1835 and covered back at 1822.5.  We longed back at 1822.5 and possibly cover back before end of the day.

KLCI to be range bound ahead of budget

There may be speculation but also some short term funds selling.  As many can expect a tightening deficit budget is going to be the objective. 

Corporate tax and personal tax may be lowered ahead of GST.  Many industries will wait for the detail or exemption or inclusion.

To our perspective.  Help those areas in need but definite not handling out cash.  As this will increase wastage as the criteria to receive the money is too general.   

In general, fiscal policy is a tool to influence the economy with objective.  I bet the most critical objectives now are to reduce budget deficit; channel resources to grow high margin industries and realign growth via human factor development like education and social welfare.

The market will very much depending on the budget to build it’s next 2 quarters trend before GST starting in April 2015.  We continuous recommending good stock pick and away from speculative play.

AUD bearish against RM but we are nibbling

The continuous weakness on AUD against RM due to improve speculation that BNM may raise OPR further before year end. Vice versa, Australia economy have mixed pictures with pressure on its central bank to keep rate on hold. We expect AUD weakness to continue with a potential break to below RM 2.80 vs. AUD 1.00 However, we take this opportunity to buy further as we are confident AUD has plenty of legs.

KLCI and global markets sentiment to be improved

We believe KLCI will reduce net selling from foreign investors with local buyers will be improved. As the Selangor MB saga is going to be ended very soon. There is no significant uncertainty and speculation on budget may attracted some buying activities. World markets will also improve except HSI with its uncertainty of the protest towards Chinese government. We will long KLCI October 2014 fore pre-budget speculation for next two weeks.

Multicode and Cypark result update

Multicode has a flat result announced whereas Cypark improved its revenue and profit more than 15% year on year. Both closing on target to delivery PE 10 times in 2014. We believe their fair value is at least 15 times. Our bet will be more on Cypark with our consistent target of RM 4.00 as of its current trend.

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