Will a change of regime in Malaysia cause a market crash in 2013?

Personally, stocks are always sensitive to uncertainty. However, any chosen government is actually the majortiy wish of he country. In short term we will definitely see some flashes but in mid to long term. If the change is for good then market should by right moving upwards. Just look at Dow Jones as an example. I am not worry.

KLSE should end higher but mathematically upside is difficult

I assume it closed 31st Dec 2012 at a higher note closing to 1,700 historical high.  Our market will start to become expensive even though money smaller and our country continue to grow.  But how much and how fast to justify another 100 – 200 pts rally?

The upside let say 1,800 and the down side can easily justify at 1,500 – 1,600 or more to average below 15 times PE. That exclude any further stress in the world markets.  We will adopt selective involvement only from 2013 onwards on our asset, commodities and agricultural related segment only.  We will be defensive and selective.

Top 5 Picks in 2013 for FBMKLCI

1. Sunway – C 2.34 and T at RM 3.00. New developments and asset related
2. Affin – C 3.40 and T at 4.00. One of the lowest valuation of financial. Still expect merging.
3. Allianz – C 6.90 and T at RM 10.00 Stable grow will enhance PE.
4. Alaqar – C 1.29 and T at RM 1.45 Asset related with stable business model to support
5. Layhong – C 1.25 and T at RM 1.80 Min. Agriculture, when revenue cover the increase cost, PE will enhance plus NTAV above RM 2.00

Above portfolio should have between yield of 3-5% annualy.

The world did not end on 21-12-2012 – Money will be smaller and weather will be more severe

Moving into 2013 and we believe more QEsss from different government across the world will be continue. The books of all trouble countries are not able to balance for sure. That will cause money to become smaller and smaller. On the other hand, 21-12-2012 was not the end of the world. But scientifically global warming is almost inevitable which will cause a more severe weather that’ll impact agricultures. Jim Rogers bet on farmers that are getting older and with little supplies to this world where no one would like to be farmers. We think further with hardship because severe weather will impact farms more and more.

Our proposed sectors to be invested in 2013 will be:-

1. Asset and Property related;
2. Commodities related;
3. Agricultures and Food related

*. Finally financials related – If the economy does not crash, when money smaller will give bigger revenue and profit to the bank.

Note: Jonah is the grammer corrector today!

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