Will stock markets crash in 2014?

We believe the time will come due to excessive money printing to support recovery with prolonged low interest world wide.  But will it happen  in this year or next? 

We think not so fast.  As the easing monetary policy in US is slowing.  However in other part of the world like Japan and Europe are continuing.  We see the world bull market may extended beyond 2015 to 2016.

However, there may be potential act of God reason that may impact the market earlier than estimated.  We don’t know the degree but this will be two major risks together with above reason.  The climate change is not reversible and will become a major issue in years to come.

While investing hedging inflation. We also recommend asset oriented balanced income portfolio.  This we continuous recommend a gradual shift from equities percentage to REITS,  commodities and solid asset related investment.

We disposed all Mudajaya and switched to MNRB

We have holding Mudajaya sometimes but with its lowering profit and revenue across few quarters.  Together with recent selling pressure from the market.  We decided to dispose all Mudajaya and switched all to our top 5 picks – MNRB.

Portfolio Update: Multico and Analabs

One of our pass pick that we are still holding on but we recommend not to add weight due to its extreme diversification plan. It has reported flat revenue and profit of approximately RM 0.11. With a quarter to go, if a slight profit will bring the PE back below 10 times. We always like its auto part industry niche play. However, diversifying into healthcare business is yet to see if it can contribute back to its investment. We continue recommend a hold but we do not plan to buy in more at the moment.

Analabs result is disappointing with gross loss and lower revenue recorded for the quarter. Nothing to cheer with only properties revaluation exercise carried out with net values added to its NTA to RM 3.60. We will continue to monitor its performance from now before making next recommended suggestion.

We disposed Uli-Corp and Sunzen for MBSB

We continuous realize profits from non core picks. We sold Uli-Corp from our purchase price under RM 0.80. We also sold of some Sunzen and its free warrants. There are activities on vets company lately. Both Sunzen and Peter Lab received heavy buying. We swapped the fund from the sell to MBSB and Qcapita to further strengthen our positions.

World Cup 2014 effect – Market will range bound

Even though not necessary that World Cup will have an effect to the stock market. But traditionally perception wise, many people will stay sideline to wait for its over. KLCI will range bound till the end of World Cup. By then if there is no disaster bordering the market. We see KLCI will test 1900 as soon as World Cup final play off completed.

We have disposed all Puncak for MBSB and Qcapita.

We have disposed Puncak for our water takeover play average above RM 3.60. We don’t know it will go up further or stop here. Our objective is clear and achieved. We swapped to MBSB below RM 2.20 and Qcapita around RM 1.16.

MBSB is one of our top pick still hovering around the same valuation. We still like it as it is undervalued and the M&A play continues. The intention of MBSB going towards a banking license in line with realising values from EPF investment. A potential merger with RHB Bank may be in the plan. After all, base on the current market PE, if all these assumption is not going to happen. We will still have a undervalue stock in our portfolio with reasonable dividend.

For Qcapita, the REIT manager continue deliver splendid result. MRCB portfolio injection into Qcapita will provide a strong potential to attract funds. If the management is retain to be managed by current management team. We are confident that Qcapita will have both capital grow potential with growing yield too.

Lay Hong Bhd hit RM 2.40 with potential M&A in place

Purely our own perspective. The recent aggressive share price increase may due to corporate exercise or M&A. Profit and business wise, the current price is very lucrative if Lay Hong can continue its current profit trend with a target of min RM 3.00 min valuation can be realized.
However, we advise some selling above RM 2.50 level as practice.

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