We are surprised and we will start mild buying into the market. we have no change with our view that next year will be slow but recovering upward. We thought the market at least will take a plunge for days. nevertheless market reacted really well to Trump’s won.
Trump won and market taken it well!
For a day of limbo when futures once dropped 900 points. By market open, Dow Jones becomes positive and we have two surprise in a day. However, good news to the financial world as one uncertainty removed. Notes always have 2 sides. Some losses and some will benefits. however, we just don’t eexpect the market and come back real quick.
Create a system not to just pick stocks
No one in this world can be 100% accurate to pick stock and win. The best approach is always if you have a system. I use cash flow positive model then following with stocks pick.
If I am right I will continue increase my holding of the stock. if I am wrong, I will cut lose and move to my top picks for the period again.
It also depends on one resources. whether you can have the experience, people and contacts to understand one company in detail.
It can be also one person alignment of character. Green Investor likely focus in eenvironmental friendly business. Some may be limiting themselves because of religious limitation as well.
For me, Cash flow positive model in my portfolio is my experience. I may not grow exponential at the beginning but this will be a stable vechlie that can lead to cross over any limbo. Most important profit from Limbo.
What if Trump win?
Sentiment wise just like Brexit and we believe it will have immediate short term impact on his Protectionism philosophy of economy. However I am not optimistic about Clinton as a President as I do not see her with solid Tactical economics plan.
US market will be in limbo for a while but Asian market will be affected possibly till year end.
I am not worry about world economy but I worry about tones of short sellers
Personally I forecasted a slow recovery but subject to bumby ride. However, short sellers are over numbered. We are worrying we may need to hedge our portfolio further.
So far our strategy in 2016 to stay invested but focused in asset oriented and dividend grow stocks is well positioned. Our cash flow model in our portfolio may also strong enough to weather and keep buying low when market against us. Very important is our Gold position is always standby for another round of crisis investment.
We are definitely not worry about the economy but again we are very worrying about the short sellers.
We have covered long positions in Apple at 112
We like Apple but the prolonged sell off caused us to covered our long at 112. We have made a slight profit and sideline for the moment due to US presidential election.
FED rates unchanged as expected
FED should have raised it months ago. As already indicated that FED is shifting from monetary to fiscal. Support of low rate in long run will damage economy further. However, indicisive move is not making the window for rate hike even more difficult. Speculators may have know how to read FED and making money from bumby market.
A positive note to Chinese investment in Malaysia
I am not sure how much is the impact as after several rounds. We still yet to see a strong impact like in other countries. For example properties investment in Singapore and Australia by the Chinese are significant till now.
Nevertheless, a trade Mission may boost activities across the country. I take it as a positive note that will further add on to our cautious optimistic outlook for 2017.
2017 will be a better year across
When so many people is forecasting a downfall again. We believe the cycle of the economy may start to recover in 2017. However, we are not expecting a sharp U turn but a gradual recovery.
US rate hike is inevitable but we do not forsee a strong reverse as well. Flat rate or negative rate are giving negative impact for the world economy. But whatever done cannot be undone. A mild increase in US may also stop other countries in further devalue their currencies. (If you follow our stories all the years).
We see US, China, India and ASEAN will fuel the growth but not Europe. Japan abenomics is still a question. But we believe the growth overall will recover.
Together with the return of stable oil price between USD 50 to 60 or even higher. Crude oil Economy will also rebound with gradually as well.
We are optimistic the cycle of downturn may have bottomed. But the recovery may take a very long time and bumpy. The ultimate crash of the whole world may not be in this round but can be still a strong possibility years ahead.
Our main focus of stocks in Q4 2016
We remain our top picks and continous purchase while price on weakness.
Top Picks
- MBSB
- CIMB
- EIG
- Alliance
Mild Collection
- OCB
- Paramount
- Cypark
- OSK
- Luxem
- MNRB
Speculative Play
- Gadang
- Gamuda Warrants
- OSK Warrant
MREITS
- MQREIT
- TWREIT
- ARREIT