2017 Outlook – Small momentum of recovery

Both US and China economies will recover gradually.  FED may hike rate but with lower momentum but fiscal and protectionism policies by Trump may bring short term effect.  World trade policies may be impacted by Trump appointment into office.  However, his pro Russia and certain countries policies may offset each other.  China will gradual recover with an estimated grow in line with their government target.  

We believe ASEAN looks really cheap now and the grow in this huge potential and growing economy body is still on its way for strong grow.  Currencies rejustification may start to happen where devaluation momentum will slow down but heading towards strengthen against USD.  Too high of USD will kill US export and Trump will not survive if only rely on internal growth.  

Crude oil will trade back to above USD 60 and Gold will recover when USD start to readjust itself to a reasonable value.  Property and real estate market remained lack luster but a gradual stabilization is expected.  In ASEAN we believe Jakarta, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam and Mymar will all register strong growth.  Whereas, Singapore will naturally follow the global economy sentiment together with ASEAN as a hub.  

Finally local front, we always believe our local economy is solid and strong. But it cannot be denied that we have many mis managed in 2016.  A strong political certainty is needed where it is lacking now.  RM will recover and I think the momentum of weakness against USD will minimize and revert the trend.  A General Election is needed and a win to obtain mandate in next few years either BN or PR will just make sense of stability.  When crude oil recover to USD 60 together with a few large development kick started.  Support from infrastructure grow will remain to Economy.  Overall, as a nation we need to do the right thing in order to move the economy to the right direction.   A great country with great resources and potential.  

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